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Autonomous mobility will reshape urban real estate
within
most current development hold periods

Eight years of independent research on economics, building massing, central business district geography, and the long-term value of urban land; the quantitative case for developers and community improvement districts making the decisions now

Thesis

As Level 2+ autonomous vehicles reach 10% of the US fleet by 2030 and 65% by 2040, buildings delivered today with 30-year holds will spend most of their useful life in a transportation regime different from the one for which they were designed. Community improvement districts will have to decide whether to plan the transition deliberately or be forced to retrofit and tear down expensive buildings later at a higher cost. The challenge for real estate companies will be to uncover underpriced assets in overlooked locations most transformed by autonomous central highways and expanded central business districts.

Three Core Findings

level 2 autonomy

achieves connected mobility
at 40 miles per hour
in a guided system​

5 years

the market for autonomous
highways will arrive before we are likely to have combined liens, financial agreements, and official blueprints and construction of even a single autonomous highway 

9 square miles

the size of a functional central business
district (CBD) under near-term
autonomous infrastructure
(4x the size of Midtown Manhattan)

About the Author

Autonomous Symmetry is an independent research project by Joseph Hornbuckle, an Atlanta-based analyst with a background in economics, growth strategy in residential construction software, and product management. The project has been continuously developed since 2018, combining quantitative modeling with field-specific literature in urban planning and infrastructure economics. Joseph is currently exploring opportunities in real estate research, development strategy, and capital-allocation analysis.

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