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Autonomous mobility will reshape urban real estate
within most current development hold periods

Eight years of independent research on economics, building massing, central business district geography, and the long-term value of urban land; the quantitative case for developers and community improvement districts making the decisions now

Thesis

As Level 2+ autonomous vehicles has reached 25.7 percent of new vehicles sold and 17.4 percent of the existing fleet, buildings delivered today with 30-year holds will spend most of their useful life in a transportation regime different from the one for which they were designed. First, cities and community improvement districts will have to decide whether to plan the transition deliberately or be forced to tear down expensive buildings later at a higher costs. The challenge for real estate companies will be to uncover underpriced assets in overlooked locations.

Three Core Findings

level 2 autonomy

achieves connected mobility
in a guided system​, cutting transit times in half and doubling commuter flow capacity into central business districts like Houston, Dallas and Atlanta

1-2 years

the market for autonomous
highways will arrive before we are likely to have combined liens, financial agreements, and official blueprints and construction of even a single autonomous viaduct 

9 square miles

the size of a functional central business
district (CBD) under near-term
autonomous infrastructure
(4x the size of Midtown Manhattan)

About the Author

Autonomous Symmetry is an independent research project by Joe Hornbuckle, an Atlanta-based dog-walker with a background in economics, product management, and growth strategy in residential construction software. The project has been continuously developed since 2018, combining quantitative modeling with field-specific literature in urban planning and infrastructure economics. Joe is currently exploring opportunities in real estate research, development strategy, and capital-allocation analysis.

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